A Markov Chain Model for Rainfall Occurrence in Pakistan

The rainfall probabilities for four locations; Faisalabad, Lahore, Islamabad and Murree in Pakistan, have been calculated by the method of Markov chains using the threshold values of 10 mm/decade. A program written in GWBASIC calculates these probabilities. The probabilities of dry spells for Faisalabad and Lahore are higher than the Islamabad and Murree for all the 36 decades of a year using the data of 45 years for Faisalabad, 39 for each Lahore and Islamabad and 44 years for Murree.